In 2020, The U.S Became More “Conservative” AND MARKEDLY LESS “LIBERAL”
BY CAMERON D. JACOX
Most election observers have commented on the demographic and racial trends that characterized some of 2020’s voting shifts. Namely, the historically significant shift of middle-income Hispanic and Black voters towards Trump and of upper-middle-income White voters towards Biden. But missing in these analyses is the unmistakably clear trend of a more conservative United States. In short, it would appear that Trump’s unpopularity with certain groups has masked an otherwise highly significant conservative shift in the electorate.
I write this not to take a public position on whether the data are positive or negative.
What the Exit Polls Show
Exit polls have historically been a much more accurate representation of the electorate and voting trends than polls. While polls try to assess potential voter behavior, exit polls capture the actual behavior on the ground.
Comparing the exit polls between 2020 and 2016 shows highly significant differences in beliefs and party affiliation. The differences are striking both because of their magnitude and because they have been so rarely covered (I’ve yet to find a single analysis highlighting this).
Share of voters identifying as conservative increaseD
First and foremost among these trends appears to be how Americans identify their political lean. The share of voters who consider themselves “on most political matters” to be “conservative” increased between 2016 and 2020 by 3 percentage points (from 35% to 38%), while the share identifying as “liberal” decreased by 2 percentage points (from 26% to 24%), widening the gap between the two groups to +14% conservative from + 9%. The share identifying as “moderate” has stayed relatively flat, moving from 39% to 38%.
In terms of the outcome of the election, the only statistically meaningful shift within groups was that of self-described Moderates who gave Clinton 38% of their vote but gave Biden 52%. And many of those Moderates seem to increasingly consider themselves Republicans and Independents.
The reasons for and implications of this shift are much meatier topics and for another time. Just providing the raw data without any analysis is obviously a much easier job and it’s the only one that I’m presently prepared to commit the time to!
PARTY AFFILIATION SHIFTED TOWARDS REPUBLICANS
Just as striking is the shift in Party Affiliation. Among 15,590 respondents to the exit polls, Democrat Party affiliation increased by one percentage point from 2016 to 2020 while Republican Party affiliation increased by three times that amount - three percentage points. And Independent affiliation fell for the first time in decades.
| National | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Voted For | 2016 | Shift | ||
| On most political matters, do you consider yourself: | Trump |
Biden |
|||
Liberal |
24% |
10% |
89% |
26% |
-2% |
Moderate |
38% |
38% |
64% |
39% |
-1% |
Conservative |
38% |
85% |
14% |
35% |
3% |
| No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: | |||||
Democrat |
37% |
5% |
94% |
36% |
1% |
Republican |
36% |
94% |
6% |
33% |
3% |
Independent |
26% |
41% |
54% |
31% |
-5% |
AN EVEN MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT IN SWING STATES
That’s the national picture. The swing state picture is even more lopsided in this regard.
In Florida, Republican voter affiliation increased by 5 percentage points to 38% while Democrat affiliation fell 2 points to 30%. Similarly, the share identifying as "liberal" fell precipitously - from 25% to 19% - while the share identifying as conservative increased to 39%, and as moderate to 42%.
In Pennsylvania, the share of Republicans surpassed Democrats for the first time in decades, growing from 39% to 41%, while the share of those identifying as Democrats decreased by the same amount - from 42% to 40%. And Independents are a relatively low share of this now perpetual swing state’s electorate - just 19%. In Pennsylvania , those identifying as “liberal” fell to just 24%.
In Michigan, the same thing happened - self-described Republicans outnumbered Democrats for the first time in decades, increasing by 6% from 31% to 37% while the number of self-described Democrats fell by 4% from 40% to 36%. Again, the share identifying as conservative increased and the share identifying as liberal fell to less than a quarter of voters.
In Texas, the share of voters identifying as liberal fell below one fifth to just 17% while the share identifying as conservative grew to a whopping 45%. And on Party Identification, Republican voter identification increased 3 times faster than Democrat identification.
In Arizona, which voted for a Democratic Presidential Candidate for the first time in decades, the share of voters identifying as liberal fell by 5% from 27% to 22% while the share identifying as conservative increased to 42%. Similarly, Republican identification increased by 3% in Arizona while Democrat identification fell by 2%. It would appear that here, too, in a state that most stories have said “shifted blue” in fact seems to have wanted to get rid of Trump but not to install liberal policies. And while Arizonans opted to get rid of Trump, they re-elected a Republican “trifecta” - a majority in the State House and State Senate, along with the Governor (who was not on the ballot).
In Nevada, again, voters decided to move on from Trump while the share identifying as Republican increased by a whopping 7%, from 28% to 35%, and the share identifying as Democrats fell by 1% to the same - 35%. The share identifying as conservative grew by 2%.
Even in Georgia, a state that clearly rejected Trump with a 5-6 point shift against him from 2016, saw an increase in the share of those identifying as Republican, flat Democrat identification, and flat liberal identification. Clearly the shift against Trump, again, was not representative of a shift towards more liberal policy preferences.
CONGRESSIONAL RACES SHOW THE SAME TRENDS
Ticket splitting among voters repelled by Trump’s personality but desirous of conservative policies was clear across the country. Strikingly, Republicans won all 27 House races that were rated as “toss-ups” in Cook Political Report’s 2020 analysis. They even picked up seven of the 36 seats rated as “likely Democrat" or "lean Democrat”, while Democrats picked up zero such seats.
Of the seven Senate races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups,” Republicans won five while the other two are yet to be completed (in Georgia), so it seems equally likely that Republicans win 100% of the Senate races rated “toss-ups” and a minimum of 5/7 or 71% of them.
At The State Level THE SAME TRENDS PLAYED OUT
At the State level, the same trend played out, with voters who rejected Trump’s personality still voting for conservative policies. In New Hampshire, voters threw Trump out by double digits, but re-elected a Republican governor and flipped both the State House and State Senate from Democrat to Republican control. Every other swing state, including those that rejected Trump, gave Republicans power at the state level including in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and others.
If we take a closer look at just 1 of the states, New Hampshire, we see that ticket-splitting occurred in striking numbers, showing its mettle as a truly independent-minded state. The governor’s race was won by Republican Chris Sununu with 516,000 votes to a Democrat challenger’s 264,000 votes. In comparison, Democrat Joe Biden received 425,000 votes to Republican Donald Trump’s 366,000. In total, 150,000 voters gave the nod to the Republican governor but not to the Republican President.
And the state’s right-lean despite rejecting Trump wasn’t just a glitch because the governor is popular: Republican State senators, too, received more votes than Trump. They received a total of 52% of the State's votes compared to Trump's 45%.
Let’s take 1 more example, much farther South: The swing state of North Carolina. Again, while Trump did win the state by 1.3%, voters put Republicans back in charge of the state Senate by more than double the margin: 2.9%.
In summary
I will just add that these shifts mask a general consensus in much of the media that right-leaning candidates and parties suffer when voter turnout increases, although there isn’t much broad-based data to support that claim. This election featured the largest turnout surge we’ve seen in over 100 years as well as a significant increase in the proportion of Americans who identify as conservative or and Republican, although not always at the same time. That led to a nearly evenly divided House of Representatives, a 50/50 Senate, and a President defeated over his loss of moderate and conservative voters sick of his demeanor and character - not with moderate and conservative policies. It’s important that neither side takes the wrong lesson from it.
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